Northern California’s lone Kentucky Derby prep is coming up this Saturday. The El Camino Real Derby headlines the card at Golden Gate Fields, and it’s drawn a big field of 11 3-year-olds.
Last year’s renewal was a launching pad for an eventual classic winner. Rombauer rallied to nail Javanica on the wire that day to earn a free entry into the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. Two starts later, he capitalized on the “freeroll” by winning that race going away.
It’s tough to say if any runners will get to those heights, but it’s a fun field. Let’s take a look!
Laying the ‘Mack’ down
No. 2 Mackinnon is the 8-5 morning line favorite, and he’s danced plenty of dances to this point in his career. He found his footing going long and won two stakes races last year before finishing third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. His 3-year-old season started in the Grade 3 Sham, where he was fourth of five runners but missed second place by less than a length.
This synthetic surface presents a bit of a question mark, but turf form usually carries over to tapeta. Based on speed figures, Mackinnon looms large in this spot, and he definitely hits me as the horse to beat.
One logical, one long shot, one throw-out
No. 6 Boise’s best race came going two turns on this course in December. He rallied from way back to win the Gold Rush Stakes over several rivals that also show up here. He then tried tougher competition in the Eddie Logan at Santa Anita, but he didn’t have a chance that day due to a wide trip and rating far behind a moderate early pace. However, that race’s second- and third-place finishers have since come back to win, and a return to familiar footing should help him.
No. 10 Il Bellator, meanwhile, hits me as a big price with a puncher’s chance. He ran very, very well in his first two-turn outing back in November, when he cruised home to break his maiden. This is obviously a far tougher spot, but he’s got several strong works on his tab. From a speed figure standpoint, he really doesn’t have to move forward much to be competitive.
My throw-out is No. 4 Blackadder, who ships up to the Bay Area for Bob Baffert (and, as such, cannot earn Kentucky Derby points). His last race was visually impressive, but it was an off-the-turf event, and the early pace was very fast. I don’t think he’ll get that setup here, and the synthetic surface is an unknown. All told, his 7-2 morning line price hits me as an underlay. If he wins, he’ll beat me doing it.
Betting strategies for the El Camino Real Derby
I’ll focus on exactas with my top three runners. In addition to boxing those horses, I’ll key Mackinnon on a smaller ticket to boost my potential payoff if that one proves to be a logical chalk.
- $3 exacta box: 2, 6, 10 ($18)
- $2 exacta key box: 2 with 6, 10 ($8, $26)
