This weekend’s lone Kentucky Derby prep race is the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. A field of 12 is set to go postward, and to the winner go 50 Kentucky Derby points, which all but assure a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Let’s take a look and see how we can (hopefully) make some money.
Classic Causeway looms large
No. 4 Classic Causeway’s 3-year-old debut couldn’t have been much more impressive. He dueled through some pretty fast fractions in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis but drew away easily and cruised home clear by nearly four lengths. That was his first start in nearly three months, too, so he may have needed that race.
The Brian Lynch trainee has worked well since that event, and we know he loves this main track. He may only need a repeat of his last-out effort to get the money here. Any sort of improvement second off the bench would make him incredibly tough to top. It’s very simple: If Classic Causeway doesn’t win, I lose.
The alternatives
No. 9 Shipsational picked up the pieces to run second in the Sam F. Davis. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a nice race here, but I’m going against him. There are some appealing shippers coming in, and he had an ideal setup in his last-out effort. If they go slower upfront, this late-running New York-bred may find himself up against it when the real running starts.
No. 8 Major General, meanwhile, is my second selection. He makes his first start since September for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, and he did nothing wrong last year. He won first time out at Saratoga and added the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs before going to the sidelines. He’s been working consistently at Palm Beach Downs, and he’s certainly in very capable hands. Development from age two to three would give him every chance to hit the board if he’s ready to go.
I’ll also give a nod to No. 5 Giant Game, whose last race was too bad to be true. He was beaten by 24 lengths in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. That was his first try off a three-month break, and he showed plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. He was a game third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile two back and earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. That sort of effort could easily get him a piece of the purse here (along with some valuable Derby points).
Tampa Bay Derby betting strategies
As I’ve mentioned, I’m relying heavily on Classic Causeway. I’ll try to extract value by keying him on top of the other two horses I like a fair bit. With the field as big as it is, those probables should still be pretty nice, even with the chalk on top.
- $10 exactas: 4 with 5, 8
